ArbitrageBeast
Australia-only EV+ market intelligence … posted as Discord embeds
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LIVE SCANS … every ~5 minutes VIG-FREE CONSENSUS DISCORD DELIVERY

Picks that are built like a system … not a vibe.

ArbitrageBeast continuously scans head-to-head markets, aggregates multi-book lines, removes vig to compute fair probability bands, measures EV bands, tracks market decay, and posts only qualified signals as clean Discord embeds.

Signal types
STRONG … TITAN
tier-gated … rules-based … no guessing
Consensus
Multi-book panels
supporting books confirm +EV alignment
Risk control
Capped Kelly
stake sizing is math … not emotion
Proof that matters (telemetry proof)
Fields • thresholds • monitoring • audit trail
Anyone can screenshot a win. We show the structure: vig-free probability bands, EV ranges, consensus panels, live state changes (WAIT/PASS/DECAY), and result updates with timestamps. See the full proof wall on the Proof page.
Sports tracked
NFL • H2H NBA • H2H NHL • H2H Tennis • H2H MMA • Moneyline BBL Cricket • H2H
Coverage expands over time, but these are the core markets we actively scan and monitor right now.
Built for Australian sportsbooks
AEST timing AU book rotation aware No US-only lines
Designed for bettors placing wagers from Australia. Odds are evaluated in the context of common AU books (Sportsbet, TAB, Bet365, PointsBet, Unibet, Betfair) and posted with timing that makes sense in AEST.
This is a data-driven decision support system. Betting involves risk. If you cannot afford variance, do not participate.
What a pick looks like
Discord embed format
TITAN … BASKETBALL_NBA … H2H
Starts: 2026-01-06T01:10:00Z … T-321 min
Bet: Charlotte Hornets (AWAY)
Best Odds: 10.000 @ Betfair
Fair Prob (vig-free): 0.110 … 0.119 … 0.127 (n=12)
EV band: 9.86% … 18.94% … 26.89%
Consensus: num_panels = 4
Suggested Stake: ~2.1 units (capped Kelly)
Vig-free probabilities
consensus fair value … not one book
Market decay tracking
edge is a moment … we monitor it

The system … end to end

The engine isn’t a single “pick.” It’s a loop: scan, normalize, compute, qualify, size, monitor, and then report results with timestamps and closing snapshots.

01
Consensus line ingestion

Odds are gathered across books and synthesized into a single consensus view. Not one-book delusion. Not vibes.

  • multi-book coverage … head-to-head markets
  • best available price tracked
  • supporting books show +EV alignment (panels)
02
Vig-free fair probability

Removes vig and computes a fair probability band from aggregated consensus. EV is computed relative to the best offered line.

  • fair prob band … n = number of books
  • EV_low … EV_mid … EV_high
  • band_width signals stability
03
Qualification … STRONG vs TITAN

Signals are gated by rule thresholds. EV + consensus must clear the line — otherwise it becomes WAIT or PASS.

  • STRONG … solid edge, fewer panels
  • TITAN … higher edge, stronger consensus
  • units sizing … capped Kelly

Signals … what they mean

You will see the pick, odds, fair probability band, EV band, and consensus panels. No mystery box.

STRONG
rules-based qualifier

Positive EV opportunities that clear thresholds and have enough consensus support to warrant action — posted directly to Discord.

Typical STRONG fields
EV_low clears threshold … panels confirm … stake suggested in units.
TITAN
higher edge … higher consensus

Stronger EV bands and deeper agreement across books — fewer signals, heavier conviction by the numbers.

Why TITAN matters
higher EV_low … more panels … tighter bandwidth … higher EV per unit.
The engine also posts state transitions (NEW / UPGRADE / DECAY / WAIT / PASS) based on monitoring. This is how you avoid chasing an edge that already evaporated.

Live market decay tracking … every ~5 minutes

It doesn’t fire and forget. If the market moves and edge decays, you see the state change in Discord — with timestamps.

State transitions

Picks shift between WAIT, BET, PASS based on whether EV_low remains above rule lines.

NEW: first seen
UPGRADE: EV strengthens
DECAY: edge fades
Cross-book validation

Supporting books listed when they also show +EV on the same side (“panels”).

Consensus: num_panels
n: books used
Bandwidth: stability
Result reporting

Results posted with stake, closing snapshot, and final status. Tracking, not selective memory.

CLV: vs closing odds
Close snapshot: timestamped
Status: WIN / LOSS / PUSH

One price. One feed. Private Discord.

No tiers. No confusion. Live embeds + monitoring + audit trail.